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Trading journal / average outcome
Trading expectancy calculator
Use the average size of wins and losses, not win rate alone, to inspect a sample or a hypothetical strategy. This local calculator separates gross outcome from a fixed average cost per trade. It does not predict your next result.
Runs in your browserNo account · No API key
local only
How to use it
Numbers are clearer when the assumptions are visible.
Start with the default example. Change one input at a time and notice which part of the result moves. Then read the explanation below before using any real-world number.
- Use your account currency consistently.
- Include costs and uncertainty outside the simple model.
- Verify the product’s own contract or fee rules.
Quick answer
The short answer
Net expectancy per trade equals win probability × average win minus loss probability × average loss minus average costs. Use amounts in one currency; enter gross wins and losses if costs are entered separately.
Input reference and starting values
| Input | Meaning | Starting value |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate (%) | From 0 to 100; excludes no-outcome trades | 40 |
| Average gross win | Positive amount before costs, in your currency | 150 |
| Average gross loss | Positive magnitude before costs | 75 |
| Average total cost per trade | Round-trip fees and execution costs not already included | 5 |
Enter comparable outcomes
Use one setup and a consistent accounting method. Divide winning trades by resolved trades to get the win rate, then separately average the positive outcomes and the absolute losing amounts.
The model has two outcome groups: wins and losses. Exclude scratches consistently, or include them in the non-winning group and calculate the average loss across that entire group, with zero assigned to scratches. State which method you used in your journal.
Follow the default calculation
At 40% wins, a $150 average gross win, a $75 average gross loss and $5 average cost, gross expectancy is 0.40 × $150 − 0.60 × $75 = $15. Subtracting $5 gives $10 net per trade.
The cost-adjusted break-even win rate is ($75 + $5) ÷ ($150 + $75) = 35.56%. If costs exceed the average win, even 100% wins cannot create positive net expectancy under those assumptions.
Working modelE = p × W − (1 − p) × L − C; break-even p = (L + C) ÷ (W + L)
| Component | Calculation | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
| Winning outcomes | 40% × $150 | +$60 |
| Losing outcomes | 60% × $75 | −$45 |
| Average costs | Per resolved trade | −$5 |
| Net average | 60 − 45 − 5 | +$10 |
Sensitivity is more useful than one result
A win rate can stay unchanged while execution or exits reverse the arithmetic. Change one input at a time to identify which assumption carries the result. These are hypothetical averages, not observations about your account.
| Scenario at 40% wins | Average win | Average loss | Cost | Net expectancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Default | $150 | $75 | $5 | +$10 |
| Smaller average winners | $120 | $75 | $5 | −$2 |
| Higher average costs | $150 | $75 | $20 | −$5 |
Keep sample estimates separate from future performance
An observed positive average does not establish that a process will keep working. Small samples, unusual market conditions, missing losses and changing position size can distort an estimate. This calculator does not produce a confidence interval or model a sequence of trades.
If your recorded outcomes are already net of fees and execution costs, enter zero in the separate cost field to avoid subtraction twice. For variable risk sizes, a cash average may mix the quality of a setup with changes in exposure; use consistent units for the comparison.
Primary references
Continue with original sources.
These links provide definitions and current context. Product rules, regulation and network details can change, so verify time-sensitive information at the source.
Common questions
Before you move on
Can a strategy with less than 50% wins have positive expectancy?+
Yes in arithmetic, if average wins are large enough relative to losses and costs. That does not establish future profitability.
What if my trade results are already net?+
Enter zero costs separately. A second subtraction would duplicate the charges.
Does positive expectancy guarantee growth?+
No. Inputs may be uncertain, and the sequence, size and dependence of outcomes are outside this model.
Continue this topic
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